Despite labor shortages and rising material costs that continue to impact the construction sector, construction spending for nonresidential buildings is projected to increase 4.0% this year and continue at a 3.9% pace of growth through 2019.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast indicates the commercial construction sectors will generate much of the expected gains this year, and by 2019 the industrial and institutional sectors will dominate the projected construction growth.
“Rebuilding after the record-breaking losses from natural disasters last year, the recently enacted tax reform bill, and the prospects of an infrastructure package are expected to provide opportunities for even more robust levels of activity within the industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) and other major leading indicators for the industry also point to an upturn in construction activity over the coming year.”
CLICK TO VIEW INTERACTIVE CHART
Even eight and a half years into this current national economic cycle, the US economy remains on solid footings. Given the strong levels of business investment, economic growth is estimated to have been 2.2% to 2.3% range last year, easily topping the 1.5% growth from 2016. Over two million new payroll positions on net were added to the economy last year, the seventh straight year that payroll growth exceeded that level.
The national unemployment rate ended the year at 4.1%, its lowest level since 2000. And while low interest rates have helped to fuel this growth, rising stock prices have ensured that public companies have had access to capital to expand their operations. The Dow Jones industrial average increased almost 25% during the year.
However, in the face of a supportive economy, construction spending on nonresidential buildings disappointed last year. Overall spending on these facilities grew by only about 2.5%, with spending on manufacturing facilities seeing a steep double-digit decline.
The only sector achieving healthy growth was retail and other commercial facilities, an odd result given the numerous reports of failing shopping centers due to strong growth in e-commerce sales. However, much of the spending reported in the retail and other commercial facilities category was for distribution facilities and related logistic operations to support a more efficient e-commerce system.
Still, the slowdown in spending last year was sharper than expected. Annual 2015 increases were almost 16% across the entire nonresidential building category, with the office and lodging categories realizing strong gains, and the institutional categories posting increases of almost 8% overall.
Growth in activity eased in 2016, with overall spending on nonresidential buildings increasing by only 6% even though the office and lodging categories posted gains of nearly 25%. Spending on institutional facilities was disappointing, with increases totaling less than 2% in this category.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Feb 7, 2023
Multifamily housing rents flat in January, developers remain optimistic
Multifamily rents were flat in January 2023 as a strong jobs report indicated that fears of a significant economic recession may be overblown. U.S. asking rents averaged $1,701, unchanged from the prior month, according to the latest Yardi Matrix National Multifamily Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Reconstruction Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. building reconstruction and renovation sector
Gensler, Stantec, IPS, Alfa Tech, STO Building Group, and Turner Construction top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest reconstruction sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Transit Facility Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. transit facility sector
Walsh Group, Skanska USA, HDR, Perkins and Will, and AECOM top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest transit facility sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Telecommunications Facility Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. telecommunications facility sector
AECOM, Alfa Tech, Kraus-Anderson, and Stantec head BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest telecommunications facility sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Religious Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. religious facility construction sector
HOK, Parkhill, KPFF, Shawmut Design and Construction, and Wiss, Janney, Elstner head BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest religious facility sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Justice Facility Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. justice facility/public safety sector
Stantec, DLR Group, Turner Construction, STO Building Group, AECOM, and Dewberry top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest architecture, engineering, and construction firms for justice facility/public safety buildings work, including correctional facilities, fire stations, jails, police stations, and prisons, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Parking Structure Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. parking structure sector
Choate Parking Consultants, Walker Consultants, Kimley-Horn, PCL, and Balfour Beatty top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest parking structure sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Market Data | Feb 6, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending dips 0.5% in December 2022
National nonresidential construction spending decreased by 0.5% in December, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau. On a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, nonresidential spending totaled $943.5 billion for the month.
Giants 400 | Feb 3, 2023
Top Workplace/Interior Fitout Architecture, Engineering, and Construction Firms for 2022
Gensler, Interior Architects, AECOM, STO Building Group, and CBRE top the ranking of the nation's largest workplace/interior fitout architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 3, 2023
HUD unveils report to help multifamily housing developers overcome barriers to offsite construction
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, in partnership with the National Institute of Building Sciences and MOD X, has released the Offsite Construction for Housing: Research Roadmap, a strategic report that presents the key knowledge gaps and research needs to overcome the barriers and challenges to offsite construction.