Despite labor shortages and rising material costs that continue to impact the construction sector, construction spending for nonresidential buildings is projected to increase 4.0% this year and continue at a 3.9% pace of growth through 2019.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast indicates the commercial construction sectors will generate much of the expected gains this year, and by 2019 the industrial and institutional sectors will dominate the projected construction growth.
“Rebuilding after the record-breaking losses from natural disasters last year, the recently enacted tax reform bill, and the prospects of an infrastructure package are expected to provide opportunities for even more robust levels of activity within the industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) and other major leading indicators for the industry also point to an upturn in construction activity over the coming year.”
CLICK TO VIEW INTERACTIVE CHART
Even eight and a half years into this current national economic cycle, the US economy remains on solid footings. Given the strong levels of business investment, economic growth is estimated to have been 2.2% to 2.3% range last year, easily topping the 1.5% growth from 2016. Over two million new payroll positions on net were added to the economy last year, the seventh straight year that payroll growth exceeded that level.
The national unemployment rate ended the year at 4.1%, its lowest level since 2000. And while low interest rates have helped to fuel this growth, rising stock prices have ensured that public companies have had access to capital to expand their operations. The Dow Jones industrial average increased almost 25% during the year.
However, in the face of a supportive economy, construction spending on nonresidential buildings disappointed last year. Overall spending on these facilities grew by only about 2.5%, with spending on manufacturing facilities seeing a steep double-digit decline.
The only sector achieving healthy growth was retail and other commercial facilities, an odd result given the numerous reports of failing shopping centers due to strong growth in e-commerce sales. However, much of the spending reported in the retail and other commercial facilities category was for distribution facilities and related logistic operations to support a more efficient e-commerce system.
Still, the slowdown in spending last year was sharper than expected. Annual 2015 increases were almost 16% across the entire nonresidential building category, with the office and lodging categories realizing strong gains, and the institutional categories posting increases of almost 8% overall.
Growth in activity eased in 2016, with overall spending on nonresidential buildings increasing by only 6% even though the office and lodging categories posted gains of nearly 25%. Spending on institutional facilities was disappointing, with increases totaling less than 2% in this category.
Related Stories
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Mar 15, 2023
Georgia State University Convocation Center revitalizes long-neglected Atlanta neighborhood
Georgia State University’s new Convocation Center doubles the arena it replaces and is expected to give a shot in the arm to a long-neglected Atlanta neighborhood. The new 200,000 sf multi-use venue in the Summerhill area of Atlanta is the new home for the university’s men’s and women’s basketball teams and will also be used for large-scale academic and community events.
Sponsored | Cladding and Facade Systems | Mar 15, 2023
Metal cladding trends and innovations
Metal cladding is on a growth trajectory globally. This is reflected in rising demand for rainscreen cladding and architectural metal coatings. This course covers the latest trends and innovations in the metal cladding market.
Education Facilities | Mar 15, 2023
DLR Group’s Campus Planning Studio defines new leadership
Linsey Graff named Campus Planning Leader. Krisan Osterby transitions to Senior Planner.
Building Tech | Mar 14, 2023
Reaping the benefits of offsite construction, with ICC's Ryan Colker
Ryan Colker, VP of Innovation at the International Code Council, discusses how municipal regulations and inspections are keeping up with the expansion of off-site manufacturing for commercial construction. Colker speaks with BD+C's John Caulfield.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 14, 2023
Multifamily housing rent rates remain flat in February 2023
Multifamily housing asking rents remained the same for a second straight month in February 2023, at a national average rate of $1,702, according to the new National Multifamily Report from Yardi Matrix. As the economy continues to adjust in the post-pandemic period, year-over-year growth continued its ongoing decline.
Affordable Housing | Mar 14, 2023
3 affordable housing projects that overcame building obstacles
These three developments faced certain obstacles during their building processes—from surrounding noise suppression to construction methodology.
Healthcare Facilities | Mar 13, 2023
Next-gen behavioral health facilities use design innovation as part of the treatment
An exponential increase in mental illness incidences triggers new behavioral health facilities whose design is part of the treatment.
Student Housing | Mar 13, 2023
University of Oklahoma, Missouri S&T add storm-safe spaces in student housing buildings for tornado protection
More universities are incorporating reinforced rooms in student housing designs to provide an extra layer of protection for students. Storm shelters have been included in recent KWK Architects-designed university projects in the Great Plains where there is a high incidence of tornadoes. Projects include Headington and Dunham Residential Colleges at the University of Oklahoma and the University Commons residential complex at Missouri S&T.
Mixed-Use | Mar 11, 2023
Austin mixed-use development will provide two million sf of office, retail, and residential space
In Austin, Texas, the seven-building East Riverside Gateway complex will provide a mixed-use community next to the city’s planned Blue Line light rail, which will connect the Austin Bergstrom International Airport with downtown Austin. Planned and designed by Steinberg Hart, the development will include over 2 million sf of office, retail, and residential space, as well as amenities, such as a large park, that are intended to draw tech workers and young families.
Performing Arts Centers | Mar 9, 2023
Two performing arts centers expand New York’s cultural cachet
A performing arts center under construction and the adaptive reuse for another center emphasize flexibility.