Despite labor shortages and rising material costs that continue to impact the construction sector, construction spending for nonresidential buildings is projected to increase 4.0% this year and continue at a 3.9% pace of growth through 2019.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast indicates the commercial construction sectors will generate much of the expected gains this year, and by 2019 the industrial and institutional sectors will dominate the projected construction growth.
“Rebuilding after the record-breaking losses from natural disasters last year, the recently enacted tax reform bill, and the prospects of an infrastructure package are expected to provide opportunities for even more robust levels of activity within the industry,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) and other major leading indicators for the industry also point to an upturn in construction activity over the coming year.”
CLICK TO VIEW INTERACTIVE CHART
Even eight and a half years into this current national economic cycle, the US economy remains on solid footings. Given the strong levels of business investment, economic growth is estimated to have been 2.2% to 2.3% range last year, easily topping the 1.5% growth from 2016. Over two million new payroll positions on net were added to the economy last year, the seventh straight year that payroll growth exceeded that level.
The national unemployment rate ended the year at 4.1%, its lowest level since 2000. And while low interest rates have helped to fuel this growth, rising stock prices have ensured that public companies have had access to capital to expand their operations. The Dow Jones industrial average increased almost 25% during the year.
However, in the face of a supportive economy, construction spending on nonresidential buildings disappointed last year. Overall spending on these facilities grew by only about 2.5%, with spending on manufacturing facilities seeing a steep double-digit decline.
The only sector achieving healthy growth was retail and other commercial facilities, an odd result given the numerous reports of failing shopping centers due to strong growth in e-commerce sales. However, much of the spending reported in the retail and other commercial facilities category was for distribution facilities and related logistic operations to support a more efficient e-commerce system.
Still, the slowdown in spending last year was sharper than expected. Annual 2015 increases were almost 16% across the entire nonresidential building category, with the office and lodging categories realizing strong gains, and the institutional categories posting increases of almost 8% overall.
Growth in activity eased in 2016, with overall spending on nonresidential buildings increasing by only 6% even though the office and lodging categories posted gains of nearly 25%. Spending on institutional facilities was disappointing, with increases totaling less than 2% in this category.
Related Stories
Market Data | Aug 2, 2021
Nonresidential construction spending falls again in June
The fall was driven by a big drop in funding for highway and street construction and other public work.
Market Data | Jul 29, 2021
Outlook for construction spending improves with the upturn in the economy
The strongest design sector performers for the remainder of this year are expected to be health care facilities.
Market Data | Jul 29, 2021
Construction employment lags or matches pre-pandemic level in 101 metro areas despite housing boom
Eighty metro areas had lower construction employment in June 2021 than February 2020.
Market Data | Jul 28, 2021
Marriott has the largest construction pipeline of U.S. franchise companies in Q2‘21
472 new hotels with 59,034 rooms opened across the United States during the first half of 2021.
Market Data | Jul 27, 2021
New York leads the U.S. hotel construction pipeline at the close of Q2‘21
Many hotel owners, developers, and management groups have used the operational downtime, caused by COVID-19’s impact on operating performance, as an opportunity to upgrade and renovate their hotels and/or redefine their hotels with a brand conversion.
Market Data | Jul 26, 2021
U.S. construction pipeline continues along the road to recovery
During the first and second quarters of 2021, the U.S. opened 472 new hotels with 59,034 rooms.
Market Data | Jul 21, 2021
Architecture Billings Index robust growth continues
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for June remained at an elevated level of 57.1.
Market Data | Jul 20, 2021
Multifamily proposal activity maintains sizzling pace in Q2
Condos hit record high as all multifamily properties benefit from recovery.
Market Data | Jul 19, 2021
Construction employment trails pre-pandemic level in 39 states
Supply chain challenges, rising materials prices undermine demand.
Market Data | Jul 15, 2021
Producer prices for construction materials and services soar 26% over 12 months
Contractors cope with supply hitches, weak demand.