Nonresidential construction spending on buildings is projected to grow by 4.4% through 2019, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Healthy gains in the industrial and institutional building sectors have bolstered growth projections for 2019. However, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—is suggesting that a broader economic downturn may be materializing over the next 12-24 months. See what each panelist forecasts for 2019 below, and using this interactive chart.
“Though the economy has been performing very well recently, trends in business confidence scores are red flags that suggest a slowdown is likely for 2020,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “These signals may be temporary responses to negative short-term conditions, but historically they have preceded a more widespread downturn.”
OVERALL CONSENSUS
DODGE DATA & ANALYTCS
IHS ECONOMICS
MOODY'S ECONOMY.COM
FMI
CONSTRUCTCONNECT
ASSOCIATED BUILDERS AND CONTRACTORS (ABC)
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES
MARKSTEIN ADVISORS
Notes:
• FMI's Retail & Other Commercial category includes transportation and communication sectors.
• The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.
• There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.
• Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.
• All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jun 21, 2017
Design billings maintain solid footing, strong momentum reflected in project inquiries/design contracts
Balanced growth results in billings gains in all sectors.
Market Data | Jun 16, 2017
Residential construction was strong, but not enough, in 2016
The Joint Center for Housing Studies’ latest report expects minorities and millennials to account for the lion’s share of household formations through 2035.
Industry Research | Jun 15, 2017
Commercial Construction Index indicates high revenue and employment expectations for 2017
USG Corporation (USG) and U.S. Chamber of Commerce release survey results gauging confidence among industry leaders.
Market Data | Jun 2, 2017
Nonresidential construction spending falls in 13 of 16 segments in April
Nonresidential construction spending fell 1.7% in April 2017, totaling $696.3 billion on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, according to analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data released today by Associated Builders and Contractors.
Industry Research | May 25, 2017
Project labor agreement mandates inflate cost of construction 13%
Ohio schools built under government-mandated project labor agreements (PLAs) cost 13.12 percent more than schools that were bid and constructed through fair and open competition.
Market Data | May 24, 2017
Design billings increasing entering height of construction season
All regions report positive business conditions.
Market Data | May 24, 2017
The top franchise companies in the construction pipeline
3 franchise companies comprise 65% of all rooms in the Total Pipeline.
Industry Research | May 24, 2017
These buildings paid the highest property taxes in 2016
Office buildings dominate the list, but a residential community climbed as high as number two on the list.
Market Data | May 16, 2017
Construction firms add 5,000 jobs in April
Unemployment down to 4.4%; Specialty trade jobs dip slightly.
Multifamily Housing | May 10, 2017
May 2017 National Apartment Report
Median one-bedroom rent rose to $1,012 in April, the highest it has been since January.