Nonresidential construction spending on buildings is projected to grow by 4.4% through 2019, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Healthy gains in the industrial and institutional building sectors have bolstered growth projections for 2019. However, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—is suggesting that a broader economic downturn may be materializing over the next 12-24 months. See what each panelist forecasts for 2019 below, and using this interactive chart.
“Though the economy has been performing very well recently, trends in business confidence scores are red flags that suggest a slowdown is likely for 2020,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “These signals may be temporary responses to negative short-term conditions, but historically they have preceded a more widespread downturn.”
OVERALL CONSENSUS
DODGE DATA & ANALYTCS
IHS ECONOMICS
MOODY'S ECONOMY.COM
FMI
CONSTRUCTCONNECT
ASSOCIATED BUILDERS AND CONTRACTORS (ABC)
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES
MARKSTEIN ADVISORS
Notes:
• FMI's Retail & Other Commercial category includes transportation and communication sectors.
• The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.
• There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.
• Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.
• All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jun 12, 2019
Construction input prices see slight increase in May
Among the 11 subcategories, six saw prices fall last month, with the largest decreases in natural gas.
Market Data | Jun 3, 2019
Nonresidential construction spending up 6.4% year over year in April
Among the 16 sectors tracked by the U.S. Census Bureau, nine experienced an increase in monthly spending, led by water supply and highway and street.
Market Data | Jun 3, 2019
4.1% annual growth in office asking rents above five-year compound annual growth rate
Market has experienced no change in office vacancy rates in three quarters.
Market Data | May 30, 2019
Construction employment increases in 250 out of 358 metros from April 2018 to April 2019
Demand for work is outpacing the supply of workers.
Market Data | May 24, 2019
Construction contractors confidence remains high in March
More than 70% of contractors expect to increase staffing levels over the next six months.
Market Data | May 22, 2019
Slight rebound for architecture billings in April
AIA’s ABI score for April showed a small increase in design services at 50.5 in April.
Market Data | May 9, 2019
The U.S. hotel construction pipeline continues to grow in the first quarter as the economy shows surprising strength
Projects currently under construction stand at 1,709 projects/227,924 rooms.
Market Data | May 9, 2019
Construction input prices continue to rise
Nonresidential input prices rose 0.9% compared to March and are up 2.8% on an annual basis.
Market Data | May 7, 2019
Construction costs in major metros continued to climb last year
Latest Rider Levett Bucknall report estimates rise at more than double the rate of 2018 Growth Domestic Product.
Market Data | Apr 29, 2019
U.S. economic growth crosses 3% threshold to begin the year
Growth was fueled by myriad factors, including personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, surprisingly rapid growth in exports, state and local government spending and intellectual property.