Nonresidential construction spending on buildings is projected to grow by 4.4% through 2019, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Healthy gains in the industrial and institutional building sectors have bolstered growth projections for 2019. However, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—is suggesting that a broader economic downturn may be materializing over the next 12-24 months. See what each panelist forecasts for 2019 below, and using this interactive chart.
“Though the economy has been performing very well recently, trends in business confidence scores are red flags that suggest a slowdown is likely for 2020,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “These signals may be temporary responses to negative short-term conditions, but historically they have preceded a more widespread downturn.”
OVERALL CONSENSUS
DODGE DATA & ANALYTCS
IHS ECONOMICS
MOODY'S ECONOMY.COM
FMI
CONSTRUCTCONNECT
ASSOCIATED BUILDERS AND CONTRACTORS (ABC)
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES
MARKSTEIN ADVISORS
Notes:
• FMI's Retail & Other Commercial category includes transportation and communication sectors.
• The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.
• There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.
• Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.
• All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.
Related Stories
Market Data | Aug 10, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: August 10, 2020
Private student housing owners reap the benefits as campus housing de-densifies and race for COVID vaccine boosts real estate in life sciences hubs.
Market Data | Aug 7, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: August 7, 2020
BD+C's 2020 Color Trends Report and HMC releases COVID-19 Campus Reboot Guide for Prek-12 schools.
Market Data | Aug 6, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: August 6, 2020
Oklahoma State's new North Academic Building and can smart buildings outsmart coronavirus?
Market Data | Aug 5, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: August 5, 2020
San Jose's new tallest tower and Virginia is the first state to adopt COVID-19 worker safety rules.
Market Data | Aug 4, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: August 4, 2020
Construction spending decreases for fourth consecutive month and 100% affordable housing development breaks ground in Mountain View.
Market Data | Aug 3, 2020
Construction spending decreases for fourth consecutive month in June
Association officials warn further contraction is likely unless federal government enacts prompt, major investment in infrastructure as state and local governments face deficits.
Market Data | Aug 3, 2020
6 must reads for the AEC industry today: August 3, 2020
The future is a number game for retail and restaurants and 5 reasons universities are renovating student housing.
Market Data | Jul 31, 2020
5 must reads for the AEC industry today: July 31, 2020
Vegas's newest resort and casino is packed with contactless technology and Mariott, Hilton, and IHG dominate the U.S. hotel construction pipeline.
Market Data | Jul 30, 2020
Marriott, Hilton, and IHG continue to dominate the U.S. hotel construction pipeline at Q2’20 close
Hilton’s Home2 Suites and IHG’s Holiday Inn Express continue to be the most prominent brands in the U.S. pipeline.
Market Data | Jul 30, 2020
7 must reads for the AEC industry today: July 30, 2020
Millennium Tower finally has a fix and construction costs decrease for the first time in 10 years.