Nonresidential construction spending on buildings is projected to grow by 4.4% through 2019, according to a new consensus forecast from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Healthy gains in the industrial and institutional building sectors have bolstered growth projections for 2019. However, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel—consisting of leading economic forecasters—is suggesting that a broader economic downturn may be materializing over the next 12-24 months. See what each panelist forecasts for 2019 below, and using this interactive chart.
“Though the economy has been performing very well recently, trends in business confidence scores are red flags that suggest a slowdown is likely for 2020,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “These signals may be temporary responses to negative short-term conditions, but historically they have preceded a more widespread downturn.”
OVERALL CONSENSUS
DODGE DATA & ANALYTCS
IHS ECONOMICS
MOODY'S ECONOMY.COM
FMI
CONSTRUCTCONNECT
ASSOCIATED BUILDERS AND CONTRACTORS (ABC)
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES
MARKSTEIN ADVISORS
Notes:
• FMI's Retail & Other Commercial category includes transportation and communication sectors.
• The AIA Consensus Forecast is computed as an average of the forecasts provided by the panelists that submit forecasts for each of the included building categories.
• There are no standard definition of some nonresidential building categories, so panelists may define a given category somewhat differently.
• Panelists may forecast only a portion of a category (e.g public buildings but not private buldings); these forecasts are treated like other forecasts in computing the consensus.
• All forecasts are presented in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jul 29, 2021
Outlook for construction spending improves with the upturn in the economy
The strongest design sector performers for the remainder of this year are expected to be health care facilities.
Market Data | Jul 29, 2021
Construction employment lags or matches pre-pandemic level in 101 metro areas despite housing boom
Eighty metro areas had lower construction employment in June 2021 than February 2020.
Market Data | Jul 28, 2021
Marriott has the largest construction pipeline of U.S. franchise companies in Q2‘21
472 new hotels with 59,034 rooms opened across the United States during the first half of 2021.
Market Data | Jul 27, 2021
New York leads the U.S. hotel construction pipeline at the close of Q2‘21
Many hotel owners, developers, and management groups have used the operational downtime, caused by COVID-19’s impact on operating performance, as an opportunity to upgrade and renovate their hotels and/or redefine their hotels with a brand conversion.
Market Data | Jul 26, 2021
U.S. construction pipeline continues along the road to recovery
During the first and second quarters of 2021, the U.S. opened 472 new hotels with 59,034 rooms.
Market Data | Jul 21, 2021
Architecture Billings Index robust growth continues
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for June remained at an elevated level of 57.1.
Market Data | Jul 20, 2021
Multifamily proposal activity maintains sizzling pace in Q2
Condos hit record high as all multifamily properties benefit from recovery.
Market Data | Jul 19, 2021
Construction employment trails pre-pandemic level in 39 states
Supply chain challenges, rising materials prices undermine demand.
Market Data | Jul 15, 2021
Producer prices for construction materials and services soar 26% over 12 months
Contractors cope with supply hitches, weak demand.
Market Data | Jul 13, 2021
ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator and Contractor Confidence Index rise in June
ABC’s Construction Confidence Index readings for sales, profit margins and staffing levels increased modestly in June.
