Proposal activity for architecture, engineering and construction (A/E/C) firms increased significantly in the 1st Quarter of 2023, according to PSMJ’s Quarterly Market Forecast (QMF) survey. The predictive measure of the industry’s health rebounded to a net plus/minus index (NPMI) of 32.8 in the first three months of the year. This followed the 8.0 NPMI in the 4th Quarter of 2022, which marked the lowest level since the final quarter of 2020 and the second-lowest NPMI recorded in the last 10 years.
PSMJ President Greg Hart noted that the 1st quarter results are a pleasant surprise, especially since data was collected after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse and amid continuing interest rate hikes and recession predictions. “I don’t think anybody expected this kind of recovery,” he said. “But inflation is cooling and there are some positive signs in the housing market, so maybe we’ve found the bottom.”
First quarter results have historically been the strongest throughout the history of the QMF survey, which may play some part in the jump in project opportunities. In the last 10 years, the first quarter NPMI averaged 45.2, with the results weakening in subsequent quarters. The average NPMI for the 2nd quarter since 2013 is 36.5, with the third and fourth quarters averaging 29.0 and 25.7, respectively. Year-over-year, the NPMI for the first three months of 2023 was down substantially from a near-record NPMI of 60.2 reported in the first quarter of 2022.
PSMJ’s proprietary NPMI is the difference between the percentage of respondents who say that proposal opportunities are growing and those reporting a decrease. In addition to overall activity, the QMF surveys A/E/C firm leaders about their proposal activity experience in 12 major markets and 58 submarkets.
Private Sector Construction Markets Struggle, Publics Thrive
Firms working in private-sector markets continue to report historically low levels of proposal activity, while those in the public sector perform better, as the chart below indicates. Environmental topped all 12 major markets with an NPMI of 71.4, followed by Water/Wastewater at 70.8. Transportation continues to thrive, aided by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), with an NPMI of 65.5. Energy/Utilities remains solid, repeating its fourth-place finish from the prior quarter and a near-exact NPMI of 55.1 (down from 55.2).
Since the 1st quarter of 2019, the Energy/Utilities market has been out of the top five only once (the 2nd quarter of 2021), and the Water/Wastewater market has missed the top five just twice.
The biggest surprise of the 1st Quarter may be that Education was the fifth-strongest among the major markets with an NPMI of 42.2. This is the first time that Education hit the top five since the 2nd quarter of 2018. The Higher Education (NPMI of 45.3) and K-12 (42.3) submarkets drove the resurgence.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jan 6, 2023
Nonresidential construction spending rises in November 2022
Spending on nonresidential construction work in the U.S. was up 0.9% in November versus the previous month, and 11.8% versus the previous year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Industry Research | Dec 28, 2022
Following a strong year, design and construction firms view 2023 cautiously
The economy and inflation are the biggest concerns for U.S. architecture, construction, and engineering firms in 2023, according to a recent survey of AEC professionals by the editors of Building Design+Construction.
Self-Storage Facilities | Dec 16, 2022
Self-storage development booms in high multifamily construction areas
A 2022 RentCafe analysis finds that self-storage units swelled in conjunction with metros’ growth in apartment complexes.
Market Data | Dec 13, 2022
Contractors' backlog of work reaches three-year high
U.S. construction firms have, on average, 9.2 months of work in the pipeline, according to ABC's latest Construction Backlog Indicator.
Contractors | Dec 6, 2022
Slow payments cost the construction industry $208 billion in 2022
The cost of floating payments for wages and invoices represents $208 billion in excess cost to the construction industry, a 53% increase from 2021, according to a survey by Rabbet, a provider of construction finance software.
Mass Timber | Dec 1, 2022
Cross laminated timber market forecast to more than triple by end of decade
Cross laminated timber (CLT) is gaining acceptance as an eco-friendly building material, a trend that will propel its growth through the end of the 2020s. The CLT market is projected to more than triple from $1.11 billion in 2021 to $3.72 billion by 2030, according to a report from Polaris Market Research.
Market Data | Nov 15, 2022
Construction demand will be a double-edged sword in 2023
Skanska’s latest forecast sees shorter lead times and receding inflation, but the industry isn’t out of the woods yet.
Reconstruction & Renovation | Nov 8, 2022
Renovation work outpaces new construction for first time in two decades
Renovations of older buildings in U.S. cities recently hit a record high as reflected in architecture firm billings, according to the American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Market Data | Nov 3, 2022
Building material prices have become the calm in America’s economic storm
Linesight’s latest quarterly report predicts stability (mostly) through the first half of 2023
Building Team | Nov 1, 2022
Nonresidential construction spending increases slightly in September, says ABC
National nonresidential construction spending was up by 0.5% in September, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau.