Construction Backlog Indicator rose to 7.9 months in May, an increase of less than 0.1 months from April’s reading. Furthermore, based on an ABC member survey conducted May 20-June 3, results indicate that confidence among U.S. construction industry leaders continued to rebound from the historically low levels observed in the March survey.
Nonresidential construction backlog is down 0.8 months compared to May 2019 and declined year over year in every industry, classification and region. Backlog in the heavy industrial category, however, increased by nearly one month in May after reaching its lowest level in the history of the series in April.
ABC’s Construction Confidence Index readings for sales, profit margins and staffing levels expectations all increased in May, although sales and profit margin expectations remain below the threshold of 50, indicating ongoing anticipation of contraction. The staffing level index remained above that threshold, with more than 38% of contractors expecting to expand their staff during the next six months.
More than 45% of contractors expect their sales to decline during the next six months while 35% expect sales to increase. More than 48% of contractors expect their profit margins to decrease over the next two quarters.
- The CCI for sales expectations increased from 41.1 to 44.9 in May.
- The CCI for profit margin expectations increased from 39.8 to 41.7.
- The CCI for staffing levels increased from 51.4 to 53.
“Given the depth of the economic downturn and myriad other issues facing America today, backlog and contractor confidence data have held up better than one might have anticipated,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “But the marketplace is still tilted toward pessimism. For instance, more contractors expect sales and profit margins to decline than increase over the next six months, which is consistent with anecdotal information suggesting that many project owners are considering postponing projects and possibly rebidding them.
“After falling meaningfully in April, backlog remained relatively unchanged in May, hinting at a stable nonresidential construction marketplace,” said Basu. “However, the underlying survey received fewer responses compared to earlier months in the COVID-19 crisis, perhaps suggesting that some contractors are no longer operating at previous capacity, inducing available work to move toward better-positioned contractors. To the extent that these stronger contractors are reflected in the survey, this would tend to bolster average backlog even in the context of a subdued marketplace.
“Contractors still expect to boost staffing levels over the next six months,” said Basu. “But this may simply be a function of jobsites reopening as construction shutdowns end. Almost 70% of respondents had jobsites shut down due to government mandates and other reasons, and with labor shortages in place before the pandemic, contractors may have residual staffing needs. It remains to be seen whether expected employment growth going forward coincides with speedy recovery in overall contractor confidence and backlog.”
Note: The reference months for the Construction Backlog Indicator and Construction Confidence Index data series were revised on May 12 to better reflect the survey period. CBI quantifies the previous month’s work under contract based on the latest financials available, while CCI measures contractors’ outlook for the next six months.
Related Stories
Market Data | Mar 25, 2020
Engineering and construction materials prices fall for first time in 40 months on coronavirus impacts, IHS Markit says
Survey respondents reported falling prices for five out of the 12 components within the materials and equipment sub-index.
Market Data | Mar 23, 2020
Coronavirus will reshape UAE construction
The impact of the virus has been felt in the UAE, where precautionary measures have been implemented to combat the spread of the virus through social distancing.
Coronavirus | Mar 20, 2020
Pandemic has halted or delayed projects for 28% of contractors
Coronavirus-caused slowdown contrasts with January figures showing a majority of metro areas added construction jobs; Officials note New infrastructure funding and paid family leave fixes are needed.
Market Data | Mar 17, 2020
Construction spending to grow modestly in 2020, predicts JLL’s annual outlook
But the coronavirus has made economic forecasting perilous.
Market Data | Mar 16, 2020
Grumman/Butkus Associates publishes 2019 edition of Hospital Benchmarking Survey
Report examines electricity, fossil fuel, water/sewer, and carbon footprint.
Market Data | Mar 12, 2020
New study from FMI and Autodesk finds construction organizations with the highest levels of trust perform twice as well on crucial business metrics
Higher levels of trust within organizations and across project teams correlate with increased profit margins, employee retention and repeat business that can all add up to millions of dollars of profitability annually.
Market Data | Mar 11, 2020
The global hotel construction pipeline hits record high at 2019 year-end
Projects currently under construction stand at a record 991 projects with 224,354 rooms.
Market Data | Mar 6, 2020
Construction employment increases by 43,000 in February and 223,000 over 12 months
Average hourly earnings in construction top private sector average by 9.9% as construction firms continue to boost pay and benefits in effort to attract and retain qualified hourly craft workers.
Market Data | Mar 4, 2020
Nonresidential construction spending attains all-time high in January
Private nonresidential spending rose 0.8% on a monthly basis and is up 0.5% compared to the same time last year.
Market Data | Feb 21, 2020
Construction contractor confidence remains steady
70% of contractors expect their sales to increase over the first half of 2020.