Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction Confidence Index (CCI) indicates that contractor confidence will continue to rise in the first half of 2015. The diffusion index measures forward-looking construction industry expectations in sales, profit margins and staffing levels with readings above 50 indicating growth.
In summary, first half index readings are as follows:
- Sales expectations rose from 67.3 to 69.4;
- Profit margin expectations were up from 61.0 to 62.9;
- Staffing level intentions dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2.
Most expect that sales will continue to expand and profit margins will widen further. ABC's weighted diffusion index for profit margins is now approaching the highest reading in the index's three-year history. The sales expectation reading is even more optimistic with nearly three in four respondents expecting an increase in sales. While the rate of new hires will continue to be brisk, the pace of hiring is not expected to accelerate over the next six months due in large part to a lack of available skilled labor.
"The recovery continues and is now in its seventh year, but there is plenty of reason for concern with respect to the U.S. economy," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Financial markets have been jittery, the global economy has been slowing and Federal Reserve policy has become less predictable and more confusing. While U.S. economic expansion continues to be led by growth in consumer outlays, in part due to extraordinarily low interest rates, nonresidential construction spending growth has become an important supporting actor. Nonresidential spending, including on factories, hotels, office buildings and distribution centers, has continued to climb in the face of more readily available financing, lower retail and office vacancy rates and rising hotel occupancy rates.
"Though the U.S. economy refuses to boom, the pace of growth has been enough to allow the average contractor to secure more work at higher margins," said Basu. "Interestingly, the pace of hiring is not set to accelerate, which may be a partial reflection of the lack of appropriately skilled construction workers available for hire. The expectation is for construction compensation costs to continue to rise given expanding skills shortages, but apparently not by enough to preclude steadily expanding margins."
"While the decline in commodity prices has helped to slow construction in parts of the country, including in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota, low fuel prices have induced faster investment elsewhere, including in the U.S. auto industry," said Basu. "The result appears to be that the average construction decision maker is more confident than six months ago when commodity prices were higher. A stronger U.S. dollar has served to suppress U.S. export growth, however, and business investment growth remains mediocre by historic standards. The implication is that the U.S. economy is not poised to break out anytime soon, and that stakeholders can continue to expect frustratingly unexceptional growth close to 2 to 2.5%."
To read more about the latest CCI, click here.
Related Stories
Affordable Housing | Jun 12, 2024
Studio Libeskind designs 190 affordable housing apartments for seniors
In Brooklyn, New York, the recently opened Atrium at Sumner offers 132,418 sf of affordable housing for seniors. The $132 million project includes 190 apartments—132 of them available to senior households earning below or at 50% of the area median income and 57 units available to formerly homeless seniors.
Contractors | Jun 12, 2024
New hire strengthens Kraus Anderson's relationships with design-architects
Nate Enger, the firm’s second design phase services manager, has worked on both sides of the designer-contractor fence.
Contractors | Jun 12, 2024
The average U.S. contractor has 8.3 months worth of construction work in the pipeline, as of May 2024
Associated Builders and Contractors reported that its Construction Backlog Indicator fell to 8.3 months in May, according to an ABC member survey conducted May 20 to June 4. The reading is down 0.6 months from May 2023.
Lighting | Jun 10, 2024
LEDs were nearly half of the installed base of lighting products in the U.S. in 2020
Federal government research shows a huge leap in the penetration of LEDs in the lighting market from 2010 to 2020. In 2010 and 2015, LED installations represented 1% and 8% of overall lighting inventory, respectively.
Contractors | Jun 7, 2024
First-in-nation law requires contractors to pay prevailing wage for subsidized housing projects in Minnesota
Minnesota recently adopted a first-in-nation law that requires contractors to pay prevailing wage for subsidized housing projects in the state. This action makes Minnesota the first state in the nation to mandate prevailing wages on projects funded by federal Low-Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC).
Libraries | Jun 7, 2024
7 ways to change 'business as usual': The Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library
One hundred forty years ago, Theodore Roosevelt had a vision that is being realized today. The Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library is a cutting-edge example of what’s possible when all seven ambitions are pursued to the fullest from the beginning and integrated into the design at every phase and scale.
Education Facilities | Jun 6, 2024
Studio Gang designs agricultural education center for the New York City Housing Authority
Earlier this month, the City of New York broke ground on the new $18.2 million Marlboro Agricultural Education Center (MAEC) at the New York City Housing Authority’s Marlboro Houses in Brooklyn. In line with the mission of its nonprofit operator, The Campaign Against Hunger, MAEC aims to strengthen food autonomy and security in underserved neighborhoods. MAEC will provide Marlboro Houses with diverse, community-oriented programs.
Contractors | Jun 4, 2024
Contractors expect to spend more time on prefabrication, according to FMI study
Get ready for a surge in prefabrication activity by contractors. FMI, the consulting and investment banking firm, recently polled contractors about how much time they were spending, in craft labor hours, on prefabrication for construction projects. More than 250 contractors participated in the survey, and the average response to that question was 18%. More revealing, however, was the participants’ anticipation that craft hours dedicated to prefab would essentially double, to 34%, within the next five years.
Airports | Jun 3, 2024
SOM unveils ‘branching’ structural design for new Satellite Concourse 1 at O’Hare Airport
The Chicago Department of Aviation has revealed the design for Satellite Concourse 1 at O’Hare International Airport, one of the nation’s business airports. Designed by Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM), with Ross Barney Architects, Juan Gabriel Moreno Architects (JGMA), and Arup, the concourse will be the first new building in the Terminal Area Program, the largest concourse area expansion and revitalization in the airport’s almost seven-decade history.
Construction Costs | Jun 3, 2024
Escalation: Predicting project costs in a volatile market
Thad Berkes, Chief Cost Estimator, Design Collaborative, shares that one of the major hurdles that Design Collaborative attempts to forecast for its commercial construction projects is escalation.