Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction Confidence Index (CCI) indicates that contractor confidence will continue to rise in the first half of 2015. The diffusion index measures forward-looking construction industry expectations in sales, profit margins and staffing levels with readings above 50 indicating growth.
In summary, first half index readings are as follows:
- Sales expectations rose from 67.3 to 69.4;
- Profit margin expectations were up from 61.0 to 62.9;
- Staffing level intentions dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2.
Most expect that sales will continue to expand and profit margins will widen further. ABC's weighted diffusion index for profit margins is now approaching the highest reading in the index's three-year history. The sales expectation reading is even more optimistic with nearly three in four respondents expecting an increase in sales. While the rate of new hires will continue to be brisk, the pace of hiring is not expected to accelerate over the next six months due in large part to a lack of available skilled labor.
"The recovery continues and is now in its seventh year, but there is plenty of reason for concern with respect to the U.S. economy," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Financial markets have been jittery, the global economy has been slowing and Federal Reserve policy has become less predictable and more confusing. While U.S. economic expansion continues to be led by growth in consumer outlays, in part due to extraordinarily low interest rates, nonresidential construction spending growth has become an important supporting actor. Nonresidential spending, including on factories, hotels, office buildings and distribution centers, has continued to climb in the face of more readily available financing, lower retail and office vacancy rates and rising hotel occupancy rates.
"Though the U.S. economy refuses to boom, the pace of growth has been enough to allow the average contractor to secure more work at higher margins," said Basu. "Interestingly, the pace of hiring is not set to accelerate, which may be a partial reflection of the lack of appropriately skilled construction workers available for hire. The expectation is for construction compensation costs to continue to rise given expanding skills shortages, but apparently not by enough to preclude steadily expanding margins."
"While the decline in commodity prices has helped to slow construction in parts of the country, including in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota, low fuel prices have induced faster investment elsewhere, including in the U.S. auto industry," said Basu. "The result appears to be that the average construction decision maker is more confident than six months ago when commodity prices were higher. A stronger U.S. dollar has served to suppress U.S. export growth, however, and business investment growth remains mediocre by historic standards. The implication is that the U.S. economy is not poised to break out anytime soon, and that stakeholders can continue to expect frustratingly unexceptional growth close to 2 to 2.5%."
To read more about the latest CCI, click here.
Related Stories
| Sep 12, 2011
Living Buildings: Are AEC Firms up to the Challenge?
Modular Architecture > You’ve done a LEED Gold or two, maybe even a LEED Platinum. But are you and your firm ready to take on the Living Building Challenge? Think twice before you say yes.
| Sep 9, 2011
Hardinger joins Ryan Companies as vice president, mission critical
He will lead the Ryan team responsible for building and developing data centers and other mission-critical projects, and will oversee business development, client relationships, executive level communications and overall marketing strategies for the division.
| Sep 8, 2011
Boldt Co. reaches 4 million hours with a lost time accident
Four million hours. That’s an average of over 2,600 continuous safe work hours completed by every employee—the equivalent of one person working 24 hours a day for over 450 years.
| Sep 7, 2011
KSS Architects wins AIA NJ design award
The project was one of three to win the award in the category of Architectural/Non-Residential.
| Aug 31, 2011
Wythe Confectionary renovation in Brooklyn completed
Renovation retains architectural heritage while reflecting a modern urban lifestyle.
| Aug 31, 2011
Balfour Beatty Construction hires Portnoy to lead public-private partnerships
Portnoy will help lead and coordinate the pursuit and delivery of public-private partnerships within all of the company’s U.S. regions.
| Aug 24, 2011
Deadline Extended: 2012 "Best AEC Firms to Work For” Awards
We’re looking for firms that create truly positive workplaces for their AEC professionals and support staff. In other words, this awards program will recognize those AEC firms that nurture and develop their most valuable asset—their people.
| Aug 19, 2011
How and why AEC professionals choose flooring systems
Design and construction professionals who completed our flooring survey had strong opinions about their preferred flooring type.