Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction Confidence Index (CCI) indicates that contractor confidence will continue to rise in the first half of 2015. The diffusion index measures forward-looking construction industry expectations in sales, profit margins and staffing levels with readings above 50 indicating growth.
In summary, first half index readings are as follows:
- Sales expectations rose from 67.3 to 69.4;
- Profit margin expectations were up from 61.0 to 62.9;
- Staffing level intentions dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2.
Most expect that sales will continue to expand and profit margins will widen further. ABC's weighted diffusion index for profit margins is now approaching the highest reading in the index's three-year history. The sales expectation reading is even more optimistic with nearly three in four respondents expecting an increase in sales. While the rate of new hires will continue to be brisk, the pace of hiring is not expected to accelerate over the next six months due in large part to a lack of available skilled labor.
"The recovery continues and is now in its seventh year, but there is plenty of reason for concern with respect to the U.S. economy," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Financial markets have been jittery, the global economy has been slowing and Federal Reserve policy has become less predictable and more confusing. While U.S. economic expansion continues to be led by growth in consumer outlays, in part due to extraordinarily low interest rates, nonresidential construction spending growth has become an important supporting actor. Nonresidential spending, including on factories, hotels, office buildings and distribution centers, has continued to climb in the face of more readily available financing, lower retail and office vacancy rates and rising hotel occupancy rates.
"Though the U.S. economy refuses to boom, the pace of growth has been enough to allow the average contractor to secure more work at higher margins," said Basu. "Interestingly, the pace of hiring is not set to accelerate, which may be a partial reflection of the lack of appropriately skilled construction workers available for hire. The expectation is for construction compensation costs to continue to rise given expanding skills shortages, but apparently not by enough to preclude steadily expanding margins."
"While the decline in commodity prices has helped to slow construction in parts of the country, including in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota, low fuel prices have induced faster investment elsewhere, including in the U.S. auto industry," said Basu. "The result appears to be that the average construction decision maker is more confident than six months ago when commodity prices were higher. A stronger U.S. dollar has served to suppress U.S. export growth, however, and business investment growth remains mediocre by historic standards. The implication is that the U.S. economy is not poised to break out anytime soon, and that stakeholders can continue to expect frustratingly unexceptional growth close to 2 to 2.5%."
To read more about the latest CCI, click here.
Related Stories
| Mar 21, 2012
ABI remains positive for fourth straight month
Highest spike in inquiries for new projects since 2007.
| Mar 21, 2012
Iowa’s Mercy Medical Center’s new Emergency Department constructed using Lean design
New Emergency Department features a "racetrack" design with a central nurses' station encircled by 19 private patient examination rooms and 2 trauma treatment rooms.
| Mar 21, 2012
Clary, Hendrickson named regional directors for HDR Architecture
New directors will be responsible for expanding and strengthening the firm throughout the central region.
| Mar 20, 2012
FMI releases 2012 first quarter construction outlook
The last time construction put in place was at this level was 2000-2001.
| Mar 20, 2012
Ceco Building Systems names Romans marketing director
Romans joins Ceco Building Systems with over 15 years in marketing and customer service.
| Mar 20, 2012
UT Arlington launches David Dillon Center for Texas Architecture
Symposium about Texas architecture planned for April.
| Mar 20, 2012
Stanford’s Knight Management Center Awarded LEED Platinum
The 360,000-sf facility underscores what is taught in many of the school’s electives such as Environmental Entrepreneurship and Environmental Science for Managers and Policy Makers, as well as in core classes covering sustainability across the functions of business.
| Mar 20, 2012
New office designs at San Diego’s Sunroad Corporate Center
Traditional office space being transformed into a modern work environment, complete with private offices, high-tech conference rooms, a break room, and an art gallery, as well as standard facilities and amenities.
| Mar 19, 2012
Obama’s positioned to out-regulate Bush in second term
Proposed ozone rule would cost $19 billion to $90 billion in 2020, according to the White House.
| Mar 19, 2012
Skanska promotes Saunders to VP/GM of Bayshore Concrete Products
During his more than 13 years with Bayshore, Saunders has provided products for Victory Bridge in New Jersey, Route 52 Causeway in Ocean City, N.J., and for numerous piers at Naval Station Norfolk and the Norfolk Naval Shipyard.