Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction Confidence Index (CCI) indicates that contractor confidence will continue to rise in the first half of 2015. The diffusion index measures forward-looking construction industry expectations in sales, profit margins and staffing levels with readings above 50 indicating growth.
In summary, first half index readings are as follows:
- Sales expectations rose from 67.3 to 69.4;
- Profit margin expectations were up from 61.0 to 62.9;
- Staffing level intentions dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2.
Most expect that sales will continue to expand and profit margins will widen further. ABC's weighted diffusion index for profit margins is now approaching the highest reading in the index's three-year history. The sales expectation reading is even more optimistic with nearly three in four respondents expecting an increase in sales. While the rate of new hires will continue to be brisk, the pace of hiring is not expected to accelerate over the next six months due in large part to a lack of available skilled labor.
"The recovery continues and is now in its seventh year, but there is plenty of reason for concern with respect to the U.S. economy," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Financial markets have been jittery, the global economy has been slowing and Federal Reserve policy has become less predictable and more confusing. While U.S. economic expansion continues to be led by growth in consumer outlays, in part due to extraordinarily low interest rates, nonresidential construction spending growth has become an important supporting actor. Nonresidential spending, including on factories, hotels, office buildings and distribution centers, has continued to climb in the face of more readily available financing, lower retail and office vacancy rates and rising hotel occupancy rates.
"Though the U.S. economy refuses to boom, the pace of growth has been enough to allow the average contractor to secure more work at higher margins," said Basu. "Interestingly, the pace of hiring is not set to accelerate, which may be a partial reflection of the lack of appropriately skilled construction workers available for hire. The expectation is for construction compensation costs to continue to rise given expanding skills shortages, but apparently not by enough to preclude steadily expanding margins."
"While the decline in commodity prices has helped to slow construction in parts of the country, including in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota, low fuel prices have induced faster investment elsewhere, including in the U.S. auto industry," said Basu. "The result appears to be that the average construction decision maker is more confident than six months ago when commodity prices were higher. A stronger U.S. dollar has served to suppress U.S. export growth, however, and business investment growth remains mediocre by historic standards. The implication is that the U.S. economy is not poised to break out anytime soon, and that stakeholders can continue to expect frustratingly unexceptional growth close to 2 to 2.5%."
To read more about the latest CCI, click here.
Related Stories
| Apr 11, 2012
C.W. Driver completes Rec Center on CSUN campus
The state-of-the-art fitness center supports university’s goal to encourage student recruitment and retention.
| Apr 10, 2012
JE Dunn completes two medical office buildings at St. Anthony’s Lakewood, Colo. campus
Designed by Davis Partnership Architects, P.C., Medical Plaza 1 and 2 are four-story structures totaling 96,804-sf and 101,581-sf respectively.
| Apr 10, 2012
THINK [about architecture] Scholarship enters 15th year
Students are invited to submit two-minute creative videos that illustrate how they interact with their school's design and what the space makes possible.
| Apr 10, 2012
Structured Development & Bucksbaum close on new retail site in Chicago
The site is the location of New City, a mixed-use development that will feature 370,000-sf of retail space and 280 residential rental units.
| Apr 10, 2012
Moriarty & Associates selected as GC for Miami’s BrickellHouse Condo
Construction of the 46-story development is schedule to get underway this summer and be completed in 2014.
| Apr 6, 2012
Flat tower green building concept the un-skycraper
A team of French designers unveil the “Flat Tower” design, a second place winner in the 2011 eVolo skyscraper competition.
| Apr 6, 2012
National Association of Women in Construction forum to be hosted in Philadelphia
The April Forum, titled “Declare your Independence!” will feature educational sessions on topics ranging from Managing the Generation Gap and Dealing with Contract language across state borders to Strategic and Succession Planning.
| Apr 6, 2012
Rooftop solar energy program wins critical approval from L.A. city council
Los Angeles Business Council applauds decision allowing LADWP to create new national model for rooftop solar energy