Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction Confidence Index (CCI) indicates that contractor confidence will continue to rise in the first half of 2015. The diffusion index measures forward-looking construction industry expectations in sales, profit margins and staffing levels with readings above 50 indicating growth.
In summary, first half index readings are as follows:
- Sales expectations rose from 67.3 to 69.4;
- Profit margin expectations were up from 61.0 to 62.9;
- Staffing level intentions dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2.
Most expect that sales will continue to expand and profit margins will widen further. ABC's weighted diffusion index for profit margins is now approaching the highest reading in the index's three-year history. The sales expectation reading is even more optimistic with nearly three in four respondents expecting an increase in sales. While the rate of new hires will continue to be brisk, the pace of hiring is not expected to accelerate over the next six months due in large part to a lack of available skilled labor.
"The recovery continues and is now in its seventh year, but there is plenty of reason for concern with respect to the U.S. economy," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Financial markets have been jittery, the global economy has been slowing and Federal Reserve policy has become less predictable and more confusing. While U.S. economic expansion continues to be led by growth in consumer outlays, in part due to extraordinarily low interest rates, nonresidential construction spending growth has become an important supporting actor. Nonresidential spending, including on factories, hotels, office buildings and distribution centers, has continued to climb in the face of more readily available financing, lower retail and office vacancy rates and rising hotel occupancy rates.
"Though the U.S. economy refuses to boom, the pace of growth has been enough to allow the average contractor to secure more work at higher margins," said Basu. "Interestingly, the pace of hiring is not set to accelerate, which may be a partial reflection of the lack of appropriately skilled construction workers available for hire. The expectation is for construction compensation costs to continue to rise given expanding skills shortages, but apparently not by enough to preclude steadily expanding margins."
"While the decline in commodity prices has helped to slow construction in parts of the country, including in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota, low fuel prices have induced faster investment elsewhere, including in the U.S. auto industry," said Basu. "The result appears to be that the average construction decision maker is more confident than six months ago when commodity prices were higher. A stronger U.S. dollar has served to suppress U.S. export growth, however, and business investment growth remains mediocre by historic standards. The implication is that the U.S. economy is not poised to break out anytime soon, and that stakeholders can continue to expect frustratingly unexceptional growth close to 2 to 2.5%."
To read more about the latest CCI, click here.
Related Stories
| Sep 10, 2013
The new medical office building: 7 things to know about today’s outpatient clinic
Regulatory pressures, economic constraints, and emerging technologies are transforming healthcare. Learn how Building Teams are responding with efficient, appealing, boundary-blurring outpatient buildings.
| Sep 10, 2013
BUILDINGChicago eShow Daily – Day 2 coverage
The BD+C editorial team brings you this real-time coverage of day 2 of the BUILDINGChicago/Greening the Heartland conference and expo taking place this week at the Holiday Inn Chicago Mart Plaza.
| Sep 9, 2013
Top 25 continuing education courses on BDCuniversity
An overview of the 25 most popular continuing education courses on BDCuniversity.com.
| Sep 6, 2013
Public Architecture's Day Labor Station: Just the type of 'great idea' we're looking for in the $5,000 Vision U40 competition
Thinking about competing in BD+C's Vision U40 program at next month's U40 Leadership Summit? Here's a good example of the kind of "great idea" we're looking for.
| Sep 6, 2013
U40 Summit featured speaker: Arthur Gensler on how to build a world-class AEC practice
Gensler, founder of the world’s largest architecture firm, will talk about the role of the architect in society, the impact of great design, and the practicalities of starting and running a practice, and will offer advice for today’s young design and construction professionals.
| Sep 6, 2013
CertainTeed announces roofing contractor program partnership with Angie’s List
By teaming with Angie’s List, CertainTeed is helping local contractors build awareness for their services by providing access to exclusive advertising discounts, local business growth marketing opportunities and support.
| Sep 4, 2013
Augmented reality: 12 applications for design and construction professionals
Building Design+Construction reached out to AEC professionals who have studied and applied augmented reality and asked them to pinpoint applications that are ripe for the technology. Here’s what they had to offer.
| Sep 4, 2013
Augmented reality goes mainstream: 12 applications for design and construction firms
Thanks to inexpensive mobile devices and increasingly advanced software apps, Building Teams are finally able to bring their BIM models to life on the job site.
| Sep 4, 2013
K-12 school design that pays off for students
More and more educators are being influenced by the Reggio Emilia approach to pedagogy, with its mantra of “environment as the third teacher”—an approach that gives Building Teams a responsibility to pay even closer attention to the special needs of today’s schools.
| Sep 4, 2013
Smart building technology: Talking results at the BUILDINGChicago/ Greening the Heartland show
Recent advancements in technology are allowing owners to connect with facilities as never before, leveraging existing automation systems to achieve cost-effective energy improvements. This BUILDINGChicago presentation will feature Procter & Gamble’s smart building management program.