Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction Confidence Index (CCI) indicates that contractor confidence will continue to rise in the first half of 2015. The diffusion index measures forward-looking construction industry expectations in sales, profit margins and staffing levels with readings above 50 indicating growth.
In summary, first half index readings are as follows:
- Sales expectations rose from 67.3 to 69.4;
- Profit margin expectations were up from 61.0 to 62.9;
- Staffing level intentions dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2.
Most expect that sales will continue to expand and profit margins will widen further. ABC's weighted diffusion index for profit margins is now approaching the highest reading in the index's three-year history. The sales expectation reading is even more optimistic with nearly three in four respondents expecting an increase in sales. While the rate of new hires will continue to be brisk, the pace of hiring is not expected to accelerate over the next six months due in large part to a lack of available skilled labor.
"The recovery continues and is now in its seventh year, but there is plenty of reason for concern with respect to the U.S. economy," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Financial markets have been jittery, the global economy has been slowing and Federal Reserve policy has become less predictable and more confusing. While U.S. economic expansion continues to be led by growth in consumer outlays, in part due to extraordinarily low interest rates, nonresidential construction spending growth has become an important supporting actor. Nonresidential spending, including on factories, hotels, office buildings and distribution centers, has continued to climb in the face of more readily available financing, lower retail and office vacancy rates and rising hotel occupancy rates.
"Though the U.S. economy refuses to boom, the pace of growth has been enough to allow the average contractor to secure more work at higher margins," said Basu. "Interestingly, the pace of hiring is not set to accelerate, which may be a partial reflection of the lack of appropriately skilled construction workers available for hire. The expectation is for construction compensation costs to continue to rise given expanding skills shortages, but apparently not by enough to preclude steadily expanding margins."
"While the decline in commodity prices has helped to slow construction in parts of the country, including in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota, low fuel prices have induced faster investment elsewhere, including in the U.S. auto industry," said Basu. "The result appears to be that the average construction decision maker is more confident than six months ago when commodity prices were higher. A stronger U.S. dollar has served to suppress U.S. export growth, however, and business investment growth remains mediocre by historic standards. The implication is that the U.S. economy is not poised to break out anytime soon, and that stakeholders can continue to expect frustratingly unexceptional growth close to 2 to 2.5%."
To read more about the latest CCI, click here.
Related Stories
| Jan 16, 2014
ASHRAE revised climatic data for building design standards
ASHRAE Standard 169, Climatic Data for Building Design Standards, now includes climatic data for 5,564 locations throughout the world.
| Jan 15, 2014
6 social media skills every leader needs
The social media revolution—which is less than a decade old—has created a dilemma for senior executives. While its potential seems immense, the inherent risks create uncertainty and unease.
| Jan 15, 2014
Report: 32 U.S. buildings have been verified as net-zero energy performers
The New Buildings Institute's 2014 Getting to Zero Status report includes an interactive map detailing the net-zero energy buildings that have been verified by NBI.
| Jan 13, 2014
AEC professionals weigh in on school security
An exclusive survey reveals that Building Teams are doing their part to make the nation’s schools safer in the aftermath of the Sandy Hook tragedy.
| Jan 13, 2014
6 legislative actions to ignite the construction economy
The American Institute of Architects announced its “punch list” for Congress that, if completed, will ignite the construction economy by spurring much needed improvements in energy efficiency, infrastructure, and resiliency, and create jobs for small business.
| Jan 12, 2014
The ‘fuzz factor’ in engineering: when continuous improvement is neither
The biggest threat to human life in a building isn’t the potential of natural disasters, but the threat of human error. I believe it’s a reality that increases in probability every time a code or standard change is proposed.
| Jan 12, 2014
5 ways virtual modeling can improve facilities management
Improved space management, streamlined maintenance, and economical retrofits are among the ways building owners and facility managers can benefit from building information modeling.
| Jan 10, 2014
What the states should do to prevent more school shootings
To tell the truth, I didn’t want to write about the terrible events of December 14, 2012, when 20 children and six adults were gunned down at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn. I figured other media would provide ample coverage, and anything we did would look cheap or inappropriate. But two things turned me around.
| Jan 10, 2014
Special Report: K-12 school security in the wake of Sandy Hook
BD+C's exclusive five-part report on K-12 school security offers proven design advice, technology recommendations, and thoughtful commentary on how Building Teams can help school districts prevent, or at least mitigate, a Sandy Hook on their turf.
| Jan 10, 2014
Resiliency, material health among top AEC focuses for 2014: Perkins+Will survey
Architectural giant Perkins+Will recently surveyed its staff of 1,500 design pros to forcast hot trends in the AEC field for 2014. The resulting Design + Insights Survey reflects a global perspective.
