Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction Confidence Index (CCI) indicates that contractor confidence will continue to rise in the first half of 2015. The diffusion index measures forward-looking construction industry expectations in sales, profit margins and staffing levels with readings above 50 indicating growth.
In summary, first half index readings are as follows:
- Sales expectations rose from 67.3 to 69.4;
- Profit margin expectations were up from 61.0 to 62.9;
- Staffing level intentions dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2.
Most expect that sales will continue to expand and profit margins will widen further. ABC's weighted diffusion index for profit margins is now approaching the highest reading in the index's three-year history. The sales expectation reading is even more optimistic with nearly three in four respondents expecting an increase in sales. While the rate of new hires will continue to be brisk, the pace of hiring is not expected to accelerate over the next six months due in large part to a lack of available skilled labor.
Ā
Ā
"The recovery continues and is now in its seventh year, but there is plenty of reason for concern with respect to the U.S. economy," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Financial markets have been jittery, the global economy has been slowing and Federal Reserve policy has become less predictable and more confusing. While U.S. economic expansion continues to be led by growth in consumer outlays, in part due to extraordinarily low interest rates, nonresidential construction spending growth has become an important supporting actor. Nonresidential spending, including on factories, hotels, office buildings and distribution centers, has continued to climb in the face of more readily available financing, lower retail and office vacancy rates and rising hotel occupancy rates.
"Though the U.S. economy refuses to boom, the pace of growth has been enough to allow the average contractor to secure more work at higher margins," said Basu. "Interestingly, the pace of hiring is not set to accelerate, which may be a partial reflection of the lack of appropriately skilled construction workers available for hire. The expectation is for construction compensation costs to continue to rise given expanding skills shortages, but apparently not by enough to preclude steadily expanding margins."
"While the decline in commodity prices has helped to slow construction in parts of the country, including in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota, low fuel prices have induced faster investment elsewhere, including in the U.S. auto industry," said Basu. "The result appears to be that the average construction decision maker is more confident than six months ago when commodity prices were higher. A stronger U.S. dollar has served to suppress U.S. export growth, however, and business investment growth remains mediocre by historic standards. The implication is that the U.S. economy is not poised to break out anytime soon, and that stakeholders can continue to expect frustratingly unexceptional growth close to 2 to 2.5%."
To read more about the latest CCI, click here.
Ā
Related Stories
Contractors | Sep 14, 2015
Gilbane report: Nonres building on brink of ābreakoutā spending year
Total construction spending is on pace to achieve double-digit growth in 2015, and a strong single-digit increase next year. But finding labor will be tough.
Giants 400 | Sep 10, 2015
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR GIANTS: Stantec, Turner, Jacobs among top industrial AEC firms
BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest industrial sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2015 Giants 300 Report
Giants 400 | Sep 10, 2015
MILITARY SECTOR GIANTS: Clark Group, HDR, Fluor top rankings of nation's largest military sector AEC firms
BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest military sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2015 Giants 300 Report
Contractors | Sep 9, 2015
ABC: Construction activity increases as backlog edges higher
The backlog indicator is up 1% to 8.5 months during the second quarter of 2015.
Giants 400 | Sep 8, 2015
RETAIL SECTOR GIANTS: Callison RTKL, PCL Construction, Jacobs among top retail sector AEC firms
BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest retail sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2015 Giants 300 Report
BIM and Information Technology | Sep 7, 2015
The power of data: How AEC firms and owners are using analytics to transform design and construction
CaseāsĀ bldgs = data conference highlighted how collecting data about personal activities can inform design and extend the power of BIM/VDC.
Industrial Facilities | Sep 3, 2015
DATA CENTER SECTOR GIANTS: Fluor, Gensler, Holder Construction among top data center AEC firms
BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest data center sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2015Ā Giants 300 Report
Airports | Aug 31, 2015
Surveys gauge usersā satisfaction with airports
Several surveys gauge passenger satisfaction with airports, as flyers and airlines weigh in on technology, security, and renovations.Ā
Airports | Aug 31, 2015
Small and regional airports in a dogfight for survival
Small and regional airports are in a dogfight for survival. Airlines have either cut routes to non-hub markets, or donāt provide enough seating capacity to meet demand.
Airports | Aug 31, 2015
Airports expand rental car facilities to ease vehicular traffic at their terminals
AEC teams have found fertile ground in building or expanding consolidated rental car facilities, which are the No. 1 profit centers for most airports.