Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) Construction Confidence Index (CCI) indicates that contractor confidence will continue to rise in the first half of 2015. The diffusion index measures forward-looking construction industry expectations in sales, profit margins and staffing levels with readings above 50 indicating growth.
In summary, first half index readings are as follows:
- Sales expectations rose from 67.3 to 69.4;
- Profit margin expectations were up from 61.0 to 62.9;
- Staffing level intentions dipped slightly from 66.3 to 66.2.
Most expect that sales will continue to expand and profit margins will widen further. ABC's weighted diffusion index for profit margins is now approaching the highest reading in the index's three-year history. The sales expectation reading is even more optimistic with nearly three in four respondents expecting an increase in sales. While the rate of new hires will continue to be brisk, the pace of hiring is not expected to accelerate over the next six months due in large part to a lack of available skilled labor.
"The recovery continues and is now in its seventh year, but there is plenty of reason for concern with respect to the U.S. economy," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Financial markets have been jittery, the global economy has been slowing and Federal Reserve policy has become less predictable and more confusing. While U.S. economic expansion continues to be led by growth in consumer outlays, in part due to extraordinarily low interest rates, nonresidential construction spending growth has become an important supporting actor. Nonresidential spending, including on factories, hotels, office buildings and distribution centers, has continued to climb in the face of more readily available financing, lower retail and office vacancy rates and rising hotel occupancy rates.
"Though the U.S. economy refuses to boom, the pace of growth has been enough to allow the average contractor to secure more work at higher margins," said Basu. "Interestingly, the pace of hiring is not set to accelerate, which may be a partial reflection of the lack of appropriately skilled construction workers available for hire. The expectation is for construction compensation costs to continue to rise given expanding skills shortages, but apparently not by enough to preclude steadily expanding margins."
"While the decline in commodity prices has helped to slow construction in parts of the country, including in portions of Texas, Oklahoma and North Dakota, low fuel prices have induced faster investment elsewhere, including in the U.S. auto industry," said Basu. "The result appears to be that the average construction decision maker is more confident than six months ago when commodity prices were higher. A stronger U.S. dollar has served to suppress U.S. export growth, however, and business investment growth remains mediocre by historic standards. The implication is that the U.S. economy is not poised to break out anytime soon, and that stakeholders can continue to expect frustratingly unexceptional growth close to 2 to 2.5%."
To read more about the latest CCI, click here.
Related Stories
Reconstruction & Renovation | May 30, 2017
Achieving deep energy retrofits in historic and modern-era buildings [AIA course]
Success in retrofit projects requires an entirely different mindset than in new construction, writes Randolph Croxton, FAIA, LEED AP, President of Croxton Collaborative Architects.
| May 24, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: Applying machine learning to building design, Daniel Davis, WeWork
Daniel Davis offers a glimpse into the world at WeWork, and how his team is rethinking workplace design with the help of machine learning tools.
| May 24, 2017
Accelerate Live! talk: Learning from Silicon Valley - Using SaaS to automate AEC, Sean Parham, Aditazz
Sean Parham shares how Aditazz is shaking up the traditional design and construction approaches by applying lessons from the tech world.
AEC Tech | May 11, 2017
Accelerate Live!: Social media reactions from BD+C's AEC innovation conference
BD+C's inaugural Accelerate Live! innovation conference took place May 11, in Chicago.
Multifamily Housing | May 10, 2017
Triple Treat: Developer transforms mid-rise into unique live-work lofts
Novus Residences’ revolutionary e-lofts concept offers tenants a tempting trio of options—‘live,’ ‘live-work,’ or ‘work’—all on the same floor.
Sponsored | Building Team | May 8, 2017
The builder is the building: Finding the right builder
The most important factor in making sure the where, when, what, and how go smoothly is making sure you pick the right who.
Multifamily Housing | May 3, 2017
Silicon Valley’s high-tech oasis
An award-winning rental complex takes its design cues from its historic location in Silicon Valley.
Multifamily Housing | May 2, 2017
Multifamily housing: 7 exciting, inspiring innovations [AIA Course]
This AIA CES course features seven novel approaches developers and Building Teams are taking to respond to competitive pressures and build more quickly and with more attractive offerings.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 26, 2017
Multifamily amenity trends: The latest in package delivery centers
Package delivery centers provide order and security for the mountains of parcels piling up at apartment and condominium communities.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 26, 2017
Huh? A subway car on the roof?
Chicago’s newest multifamily development features an iconic CTA car on its amenity deck.