According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
| Jan 3, 2012
New SJI Rule on Steel Joists
A new rule from the Steel Joist Institute clarifies when local reinforcement of joists is required for chord loads away from panel points. SJI members offer guidance about how and when to specify loads.
| Jan 3, 2012
AIA Course: New Developments in Concrete Construction
Earn 1.0 AIA/CES learning units by studying this article and successfully completing the online exam.
| Jan 3, 2012
The Value of Historic Paint Investigations
An expert conservator provides a three-step approach to determining a historic building’s “period of significance”—and how to restore its painted surfaces to the correct patterns and colors.
| Jan 3, 2012
28th Annual Reconstruction Awards: Bringing Hope to Cancer Patients
A gothic-style structure is reconstructed into comfortable, modern patient residence facility for the American Cancer Society.
| Jan 3, 2012
Art Gensler: Still Making a Difference for Clients Every Day
After running what is today the largest architecture firm in the world for more than four decades, M. Arthur Gensler, Jr., FAIA, FIIDA, RIBA, is content to be just another employee at the firm that bears his name.
| Jan 3, 2012
Gensler: 'The One Firm Firm'
The giant architecture firm succeeds by giving each of its more than 3,000 employees the opportunity for career growth and professional leadership.
| Jan 3, 2012
Rental Renaissance, The Rebirth of the Apartment Market
Across much of the U.S., apartment rents are rising, vacancy rates are falling. In just about every major urban area, new multifamily rental projects and major renovations are coming online. It may be too soon to pronounce the rental market fully recovered, but the trend is promising.
| Dec 29, 2011
GreenWizard offers cloud-based LEED credit management, assessment
The company recently began offering companies the ability to run assessments for design credits, in addition to traditional product-specific LEED credits.
| Dec 27, 2011
Clayco awarded expansion of Washington University Data Center in St. Louis
Once completed, the new building addition will double the size of the data center which houses sophisticated computer networks that store massive amounts of genomic data used to identify the genetic origins of cancer and other diseases.
| Dec 27, 2011
Ground broken for adaptive reuse project
Located on the Garden State Parkway, the master-planned project initially includes the conversion of a 114-year-old, 365,000-square-foot, six-story warehouse building into 361 loft-style apartments, and the creation of a three-level parking facility.
