According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
| Feb 1, 2012
ULI and Greenprint Foundation create ULI Greenprint Center for Building Performance
Member-to-member information exchange measures energy use, carbon footprint of commercial portfolios.
| Feb 1, 2012
AEC mergers and acquisitions up in 2011, expected to surge in 2012
Morrissey Goodale tracked 171 domestic M&A deals, representing a 12.5% increase over 2010 and a return to levels not seen since 2007.
| Jan 31, 2012
AIA CONTINUING EDUCATION: Reroofing primer, in-depth advice from the experts
Earn 1.0 AIA/CES learning units by studying this article and successfully completing the online exam.
| Jan 31, 2012
28th Annual Reconstruction Awards: Modern day reconstruction plays out
A savvy Building Team reconstructs a Boston landmark into a multiuse masterpiece for Suffolk University.
| Jan 31, 2012
Chapman Construction/Design: ‘Sustainability is part of everything we do’
Chapman Construction/Design builds a working culture around sustainability—for its clients, and for its employees.
| Jan 31, 2012
Fusion Facilities: 8 reasons to consolidate multiple functions under one roof
‘Fusing’ multiple functions into a single building can make it greater than the sum of its parts. The first in a series on the design and construction of university facilities.
| Jan 31, 2012
Suffolk Construction to manage Lawrence & Memorial Hospital Cancer Center project in Waterford, Conn.
Leading construction management firm overseeing one of first healthcare projects in the country to utilize innovative IPD process.
| Jan 31, 2012
Perkins Eastman’s Miller appointed Chairman of the AIA International Committee
International expertise leveraged as global industry resource.
| Jan 31, 2012
KBE selected for school project in Waterbury, Conn.
Located adjacent to the existing elementary school, the $28 million, 82,000 s/f Pre-K to eighth Grade school is expected to host its first students in the fall of 2013.
| Jan 31, 2012
Construction Law Firm Allensworth & Porter, LLP adds May to the firm
Prior to joining Allensworth & Porter, May served as the staff attorney for the Texas Civil Justice League, and was responsible for drafting, analyzing, and tracking civil justice and business-related legislation during the 82nd Legislative Session.
