According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
| May 14, 2012
SMPS and Deltek announce alliance
A/E/C industry leaders partner to advance technology’s role in design firm marketing and business development.
| May 14, 2012
ArchiCAD e-Specs integration unveiled
Architects, engineers and construction professionals use InterSpec’s e-SPECS products on thousands of projects annually to maintain synchronization between construction models, drawings, and project specifications.
| May 11, 2012
2012 White Paper: High-Performance Reconstructed Buildings: The 99% Solution
Download the complete White Paper, Chapters 1-10
| May 11, 2012
Chapter 10 Action Plan: 18 Recommendations for Advancing Sustainability in Reconstructed Buildings
We offer the following recommendations in the hope that they will help step up the pace of high-performance building reconstruction in the U.S. and Canada. We consulted many experts for advice, but these recommendations are solely the responsibility of the editors of Building Design+Construction. We welcome your comments. Please send them to Robert Cassidy, Editorial Director: rcassidy@sgcmail.com.
| May 11, 2012
Chapter 9 The Key to Commissioning That Works? It Never Stops
Why commissioning for existing and renovated buildings needs to be continuous to be effective.
| May 11, 2012
Chapter 8 High-Performance Reconstruction and Historic Preservation: Conflict and Opportunity
What historic preservationists and energy-performance advocates can learn from each other.
| May 11, 2012
VFA to acquire Altus Group's Capital Planning division
Strategic move strengthens VFA's facilities capital planning market osition in North America.
| May 11, 2012
Betz promoted to senior vice president for McCarthy’s San Diego Office
He will oversee client relations, estimating, office operations and personnel as well as integration of the company’s scheduling, safety and contracts departments.
| May 11, 2012
CRSI appoints Brace chairman
Stevens also elected to board of directors and vice-chair.
| May 11, 2012
Dempster named to AIA College of Fellows
Altoon Partners’ technical and construction services leader honored for his contributions.