According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
| May 9, 2013
Post-tornado Greensburg, Kan., leads world in LEED-certified buildings per capita
Six years after a tornado virtually wiped out the town, Greensburg, Kan., is the world's leading community in LEED-certified buildings per capita.
| May 8, 2013
Preventable curtain wall failures - AIA/CES course
In many cases, curtain wall failures are caused by fairly simple errors that occur during the fabrication and installation process. This presentation will highlight common errors and when they typically occur.
| May 7, 2013
First look: Golden State Warriors stadium by Snøhetta, AECOM
Architects Snøhetta and AECOM have revealed their latest renderings of a new stadium for NBA basketball team the Golden State Warriors on the waterfront in San Francisco.
| May 7, 2013
Renovated bridge building will anchor Nashville riverfront master plan
Renovations to the former Nashville Bridge Company building were recently completed, including a newly-built modern wing. The facility has been re-dubbed The Bridge Building and now offers spaces for meetings, parties, weddings, and other events.
| May 7, 2013
First look: Adrian Smith + Gordon Gill skyscraper designed to 'confuse the wind'
The 400-meter-high, 116-story Imperial Tower in Mumbai will feature a slender, rounded form optimized to withstand the area's strong wind currents.
| May 6, 2013
SAFTI FIRST announces 3D Autodesk Revit models for fire rated wall, window, and door systems
SAFTI FIRST, leading USA-manufacturer of fire rated glass and faming systems, is proud to announce that Autodesk Revit models are now available for its fire rated walls, window and door systems via www.safti.com and Autodesk Seek.
| May 6, 2013
7 major multifamily residential projects in the works
A $140 million redevelopment of a landmark, 45-building apartment complex in Los Angeles is among the nation's significant multifamily developments under way.
| May 3, 2013
5 common failures in paints and coatings
As experienced designers, contractors, and owners know, most paint and coating problems are correctable, but some are especially stubborn to address. Here is a partial compendium of typical failure modes and methods for addressing the problem.
