According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
| Jan 29, 2014
Notre Dame to expand football stadium in largest project in school history
The $400 million Campus Crossroads Project will add more than 750,000 sf of academic, student life, and athletic space in three new buildings attached to the school's iconic football stadium.
| Jan 28, 2014
White Paper: How metal buildings deliver long-term value to schools
A new white paper from Star Building Systems outlines the benefits of metal buildings for public and private school building projects.
| Jan 28, 2014
First Look: BIG's Honeycomb building for Bahamas resort [slideshow]
BIG + HKS + MDA have unveiled the design for the new Honeycomb building and adjacent plaza in The Bahamas – a 175,000-sf residential facility with a private pool on each balcony.
| Jan 28, 2014
2014 predictions for skyscraper construction: More twisting towers, mega-tall projects, and 'superslim' designs
Experts from the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat release their 2014 construction forecast for the worldwide high-rise industry.
| Jan 28, 2014
16 awe-inspiring interior designs from around the world [slideshow]
The International Interior Design Association released the winners of its 4th Annual Global Excellence Awards. Here's a recap of the winning projects.
| Jan 28, 2014
Big Ten Conference opens swanky HQ and museum [slideshow]
The new mixed-use headquarters includes a museum, broadcast studios, conference facilities, office spaces, and, oh yeah, a Brazilian steakhouse.
| Jan 27, 2014
A climber's dream: Rock climbing hall planned near Iran's highest peak
Forget the rock climbing wall. A developer in Iran is building a rock climbing hall. That's right, an entire building dedicated to the sport, with more than 48,000 sf of program space.
| Jan 24, 2014
First look: Foster + Partners' new home for Yale School of Management [slideshow]
Edward P. Evans Hall, the new home of the Yale School of Management, has opened for business. The 242,000-sf facility was designed by Foster + Partners, with Gruzen Samton as architect of record.
| Jan 24, 2014
Reed Expansion Index predicts widespread economic improvement for the year
Reed's December Expansion Index stood at 1.48, indicating overall construction in the United States is expected to grow over the next 12 months.
| Jan 24, 2014
Urban Land Institute, Enterprise outline issues in rental housing shortage: Report
Bending the Cost Curve: Solutions to Expand the Supply of Affordable Rentals outlines factors that impede the development of affordable rental housing – causing the supply in many markets to fall far short of the demand.
