According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
| Jul 21, 2014
Economists ponder uneven recovery, weigh benefits of big infrastructure [2014 Giants 300 Report]
According to expert forecasters, multifamily projects, the Panama Canal expansion, and the petroleum industry’s “shale gale” could be saving graces for commercial AEC firms seeking growth opportunities in an economy that’s provided its share of recent disappointments.
| Jul 21, 2014
Workplace trends survey reveals generational patterns in office use
Data analysis from Mancini•Duffy indicates significant variations among age cohorts in the workplace.
| Jul 21, 2014
Schindler Elevator Corp.'s new manufacturing facility receives LEED Green Excellence Award
Pennsylvania plant is the first LEED Gold certified elevator manufacturing facility in North America.
| Jul 18, 2014
Contractors warm up to new technologies, invent new management schemes [2014 Giants 300 Report]
“UAV.” “LATISTA.” “CMST.” If BD+C Giants 300 contractors have anything to say about it, these new terms may someday be as well known as “BIM” or “LEED.” Here’s a sampling of what Giant GCs and CMs are doing by way of technological and managerial innovation.
| Jul 18, 2014
Top Construction Management Firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Jacobs, Barton Malow, Hill International top Building Design+Construction's 2014 ranking of the largest construction management and project management firms in the United States.
| Jul 18, 2014
Top Contractors [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Turner, Whiting-Turner, Skanska top Building Design+Construction's 2014 ranking of the largest contractors in the United States.
| Jul 18, 2014
Engineering firms look to bolster growth through new services, technology [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Following solid revenue growth in 2013, the majority of U.S.-based engineering and engineering/architecture firms expect more of the same this year, according to BD+C’s 2014 Giants 300 report.
| Jul 18, 2014
2014 Giants 300 Report
Building Design+Construction magazine's annual ranking the nation's largest architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S.
| Jul 17, 2014
A new, vibrant waterfront for the capital
Plans to improve Washington D.C.'s Potomac River waterfront by Maine Ave. have been discussed for years. Finally, The Wharf has started its first phase of construction.
