According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Aug 5, 2015
CONSTRUCTION GIANTS: Economists hedge their bets on prospects for nonresidential construction
Leading economists expect spending for nonresidential construction to rise in 2015 by somewhere in the 6.4–7.7% range, and remain strong in 2016, according to BD+C's 2015 Giants 300 report.
Giants 400 | Aug 5, 2015
GIANTS 300 REPORT: Top 85 Office Sector Construction Firms
Turner, Structure Tone, and Gilbane top BD+C's ranking of the nation's largest office sector contractors and construction management firms.
Giants 400 | Aug 5, 2015
OFFICE SECTOR GIANTS: Today’s workplace design must appeal to Millennials’ ‘activity-based’ lifestyle
Office market AEC Giants discuss the latest trends workplace design, and the state of the office construction sector.
Contractors | Jul 31, 2015
Nonresidential fixed investment falls in second quarter
In the first half of 2015, both the broader economy and nonresidential investment lost the momentum they had coming into the year, said Associated Builders and Contractors Chief Economist Anirban Basu.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Jul 29, 2015
Milwaukee Bucks arena deal approved by Wisconsin state assembly
Created by Milwaukee firm Eppstein Uhen Architects and global firm Populous, the venue will be built in downtown Milwaukee. Its design draws inspiration from both Lake Michigan, which borders Milwaukee, and from aspects of basketball, like high-arcing free throws.
Contractors | Jul 29, 2015
Consensus Construction Forecast: Double-digit growth expected for commercial sector in 2015, 2016
Despite the adverse weather conditions that curtailed design and construction activity in the first quarter of the year, the overall construction market has performed extremely well to date, according to AIA's latest Consensus Construction Forecast.
Multifamily Housing | Jul 27, 2015
Miami developers are designing luxury housing to cater to out-of-town buyers and renters
The Miami Herald reports on several new multifamily projects, including the Paramount Miami Worldcenter, whose homes include maid’s rooms, larger terraces, boutique-size closets, and guest suites.
Green | Jul 23, 2015
NASA: U.S. headed for worst droughts in a millennium
Data from NASA shows carbon emissions could be the driving force behind devastating water shortages and record droughts in the western U.S.
Airports | Jul 22, 2015
MUST SEE: JFK airport taps Gensler to design terminal for animals
Pets can enjoy luxurious spa and grooming services before being transported directly to their flight from the terminal.
Office Buildings | Jul 21, 2015
Finally! There's a workplace trend that’s worth embracing
There’s a realization by corporate real estate executives that in order to create a successful workplace, there must be alignment between their people, their place, and the tools they have to do their jobs.