According to Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC), the Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) for the fourth quarter of 2014 declined 0.1 months, or 1%. Despite the quarter-over-quarter decline, backlog ended the year at 8.7 months, which is still 4.4% higher than one year ago.
"Inconsistent growth in the volume of public work continues to suppress the pace of nonresidential construction; however, private construction momentum continues to build," said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "With hotel occupancy rising, office vacancy falling and demand for data climbing exponentially, a number of key private segments are positioned for rapid growth in construction spending this year.
"There are a number of factors that are likely to be beneficial to nonresidential contractors in 2015," said Basu. "First, although interest rates were expected to rise after the Federal Reserve ended its third round of quantitative easing, they have actually been trending lower—due to factors such as falling interest rates abroad and a strengthening U.S. dollar—which helps contractors with construction volume and borrowing costs. Second, materials prices have continued to fall—particularly inputs related to the price of oil, iron ore and copper. This also makes it more likely that construction projects will move forward and helps boost profit margins."
Regional Highlights
• Average backlog in the South is back above 9 months for the first time since the first quarter of 2014.
• Though backlog in the West fell sharply during 2014's final quarter, average backlog remains comparable to where it was a year ago.
• Both the Northeast and the Middle States registered levels of average backlog unseen during the history of the CBI survey.
Industry Highlights
• Average backlog in the commercial and institutional category is virtually unchanged over the past year, suggesting the pace of recovery will remain moderate overall.
• Infrastructure-related spending is likely to be brisk going forward primarily due to improved state and local government fiscal conditions.
• Heavy industrial average backlog remains in the vicinity of multi-year highs, but these readings do not fully reflect the impact of a stronger U.S. dollar, which may result in a slowdown in export growth and an associated softening in industrial investment.
Highlights by Company Size
• During the fourth quarter, backlog expanded for mid-sized companies with annual revenue ranging between $30 million-$100 million. These firms enjoyed approximately half a month expansion in their respective average backlogs during the fourth quarter.
• On the other hand, backlog for small firms (annual revenue less than $30 million) and very large firms (annual revenue greater than $100 million) declined 0.2 months and 0.5 months, respectively.
• Large firms appear to have been impacted by a slowdown in large project infrastructure spending in certain parts of the country, while smaller firms have been impacted by greater observed difficulty in obtaining bonding for projects in the context of accelerating small firm failure.
• Average backlog has increased by nearly three months or by more than three months for all firm size categories since the fourth quarter of 2009.
Related Stories
Laboratories | Mar 10, 2021
8 tips for converting office space to life sciences labs
Creating a successful life sciences facility within the shell of a former office building can be much like that old “square peg round hole” paradigm. Two experts offer important advice.
Contractors | Mar 10, 2021
AGC: House votes in favor of idling workers, stripping their privacy and denying them the opportunity to establish businesses
Democrats' vote in favor of the PRO Act will hurt workers and undermine the economic recovery, top construction industry official says.
AEC Tech | Mar 4, 2021
The Weekly show, March 4, 2021: Bringing AI to the masses, and Central Station Memphis hotel
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C editors speak with AEC industry leaders about the award-winning Central Station Memphis hotel reconstruction project, and how Autodesk aims to bring generative design and AI tools to the AEC masses.
Contractors | Mar 3, 2021
ABC launches construction Technology Marketplace to grow contractor members’ innovative initiatives
Consisting of 14 companies, the Tech Marketplace will be the premier source for ABC members to find technological construction solutions.
Market Data | Feb 24, 2021
2021 won’t be a growth year for construction spending, says latest JLL forecast
Predicts second-half improvement toward normalization next year.
Contractors | Feb 19, 2021
New immigration bill protects the legal status of more than 100,000 people in Dreamers and TPS programs who work in construction
Offering undocumented immigrants a path to legal status will put an end to unfair competition and labor exploitation, but bill fails to create a construction worker visa program, has other flaws.
Healthcare Facilities | Feb 18, 2021
The Weekly show, Feb 18, 2021: What patients want from healthcare facilities, and Post-COVID retail trends
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C editors speak with AEC industry leaders from JLL and Landini Associates about what patients want from healthcare facilities, based on JLL's recent survey of 4,015 patients, and making online sales work for a retail sector recovery.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 10, 2021
The Weekly show, Feb 11, 2021: Advances in fire protection engineering, and installing EV ports in multifamily housing
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C editors speak with AEC industry leaders from Bozzuto Management Company and Goldman Copeland about advice on installing EV ports in multifamily housing, and advances in fire protection engineering.
Healthcare Facilities | Feb 5, 2021
Healthcare design in a post-COVID world
COVID-19’s spread exposed cracks in the healthcare sector, but also opportunities in this sector for AEC firms.
