Last year’s boon in single-family housing construction will have an impact on the availability and cost of building materials for nonresidential construction in 2021, which is expected to be a year of “decreasing work volume,” according to JLL’s latest Construction Forecast being released today.
Nonresidential starts were down 24% last year, and are expected to decline again in 2021. Yet, JLL sees an industry that has become more resilient and better positioned to function during the pandemic recovery.
Healthcare and industrial should be the growth winners in construction spending this year. Chart: JLL
This recovery won’t be like the last one during the Great Recession in the late 2000s. For one thing, the range between sector forecasts is wider.
JLL analyzed three indicators of future growth: construction starts, construction industry sentiment, and forecast construction spending across nine nonresidential sectors. The clear winners, in its estimation, will be distribution and healthcare. The clear stragglers: hotels and entertainment. The office sector shows the least consensus.
LUMBER PRICING WILL CONTINUE TO BE VOLATILE
The boon in new-home construction is having an impact on overall construction costs. Chart: JLL
In addition, this has not been a total construction shutdown. Single-family housing starts increased by 11% last year, and have continued to grow since last May. (According to the latest Census Bureau estimates, single-family starts in January, at an annualized rate of 1,269,000 units, were up 29.9% over the same month in 2020.)
Residential construction employment was also up last year, by 1.2%, while nonres construction employment dipped 3.9%. That growth is affecting labor and materials markets. “The growth in residential is the primary cause of our forecast for elevated cost inflation in the coming year,” states JLL.
This year, it predicts that construction cost increases will be in the higher range between 3.5% and 5.5%. Labor costs will be up in the 2-5% range. Material costs will rise 4-6% and volatility “will remain elevated.” Nonres construction spending will stabilize from the early stages of the pandemic, but still decline between 5% and 8%, although JLL foresees an upswing in the third and fourth quarter, and more typical industry growth in 2022.
One silver lining from the pandemic is that it “spurred three years of construction tech adoption to be condensed into the last nine months of 2020,” observes JLL. It cites a recent Associated General Contractors survey that found contractors planning to increase their spending for all 14 ConTech categories listed.
Labor demand should also continue, although the key to any construction recovery, states JLL, will be how quickly the population is vaccinated against COVID-19. The industry’s labor shortage was a big enough buffer to absorb some of the pandemic’s shock, and through the entire post-pandemic period “there have been more active job openings in construction than at the peak of the last expansion in 2006-2007.”
As for materials pricing, volatility will affect lumber, plywood, copper and brass mill shapes. The least volatile, price-wise, should be concrete, flat glass, insulation, and plastic construction products.
Lumber and plywood pricing is expected to remain unpredictable. Chart: JLL
NEW ADMINISTRATION COULD SHAKE UP CONSTRUCTION
JLL weighed in on the potential impact of the Biden Administration on the construction industry. The next stimulus package, if passed by Congress, should keep the economy’s growth from reversing. A large infrastructure bill “is a good possibility later this year,” which JLL thinks could be an “accelerant” to construction inflation.
Interestingly, JLL doesn’t think either a reduction in immigration restrictions or an increase in the minimum wage to $15 per hour would have a substantive impact on projects, wages, or costs, except in states like Texas where construction wages are lower than the federal rate.
Related Stories
Contractors | Oct 5, 2022
Materials shortages, cost spikes throwing Design-Bid-Build process out of whack
The traditional Design-Bid-Build delivery process is under considerable stress this year as materials shortages and cost spikes are upending usual practices, according to a new report from JLL.
Green | Oct 5, 2022
In California, a public power provider’s new headquarters serves as a test case for an innovative microgrid and for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
Sonoma Clean Power (SCP), the public power provider for California’s Sonoma and Mendocino Counties, recently unveiled its new all-electric headquarters.
Contractors | Oct 4, 2022
Which comes first, the building or the cost estimate?
At the start of a project, don’t forget to establish financial parameters when you’re discussing the design and program. By establishing the costs up front, you can avoid the pitfalls that might derail your project and guarantee its lasting success.
Fire and Life Safety | Oct 4, 2022
Fire safety considerations for cantilevered buildings
Bold cantilevered designs are prevalent today, as developers and architects strive to maximize space, views, and natural light in buildings. Cantilevered structures, however, present a host of challenges for building teams, according to José R. Rivera, PE, Associate Principal and Director of Plumbing and Fire Protection with Lilker.
| Oct 4, 2022
Rental property owners want access to utility usage data for whole properties
As pressure from investors for ESG reporting mounts, owners of multifamily properties increasingly look to collect whole-building utility usage data.
| Oct 4, 2022
In dire need of affordable housing, Aspen, Colo. will get a development that provides 277 affordable homes
A few miles from downtown Aspen, Colo., a development will provide 277 new affordable homes for an area experiencing a dire affordable housing crisis.
Green | Oct 3, 2022
California regulators move to ban gas heaters for existing buildings
California regulators voted unanimously recently on a series of measures that include a ban on the sale of natural gas-powered heating and hot water systems beginning in 2030.
| Oct 3, 2022
The College of the Holy Cross completes a $110 million performing arts center
In Worcester, Mass., a one-hour drive from Boston, the College of the Holy Cross has completed its $110 million Prior Performing Arts Center.
Resiliency | Sep 30, 2022
Designing buildings for wildfire defensibility
Wold Architects and Engineers' Senior Planner Ryan Downs, AIA, talks about how to make structures and communities more fire-resistant.
| Sep 30, 2022
Manley Spangler Smith Architects partners with PBK in strategic merger
Manley Spangler Smith Architects (MSSA), a Georgia-based, full-service architectural firm specializing in educational and municipal facilities, announced today a significant development aimed at increasing its capabilities, expertise, and suite of services.
