Spending on nonresidential buildings will see a modest 4% increase in 2024, after increasing by more than 20% last year according to The American Institute of Architects’ latest Consensus Construction Forecast.
The pace will slow to just over 1% growth in 2025, a marked difference from the strong performance in 2023. Spending on commercial facilities will be flat this year and next, manufacturing construction will increase almost 10% this year before stabilizing in 2025, and institutional construction will see mid-single-digit gains this year and next.
The Consensus Construction Forecast panelists, a group comprised of the leading construction forecasters from across the country, found there are many factors fueling the projected slowdown:
- Tighter credit conditions continue to put pressure on many regional banks that account for a sizeable share of construction lending.
- Higher construction input costs due to inflation in materials costs and labor in recent years.
- Declines in commercial property values as weak demand continues in many sectors.
- Structural changes in demand, disrupting notoriously cyclical construction industry.
“There are several economic headwinds behind the projected slowdown,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “We already started to see construction starts either slow dramatically or turn negative in virtually all construction sectors in the latter part of 2023 and the weaker conditions are expected to stay into 2025.”
Related Stories
Market Data | Apr 3, 2017
Public nonresidential construction spending rebounds; overall spending unchanged in February
The segment totaled $701.9 billion on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate for the month, marking the seventh consecutive month in which nonresidential spending sat above the $700 billion threshold.
Market Data | Mar 29, 2017
Contractor confidence ends 2016 down but still in positive territory
Although all three diffusion indices in the survey fell by more than five points they remain well above the threshold of 50, which signals that construction activity will continue to be one of the few significant drivers of economic growth.
Industry Research | Mar 24, 2017
The business costs and benefits of restroom maintenance
Businesses that have pleasant, well-maintained restrooms can turn into customer magnets.
Industry Research | Mar 22, 2017
Progress on addressing US infrastructure gap likely to be slow despite calls to action
Due to a lack of bipartisan agreement over funding mechanisms, as well as regulatory hurdles and practical constraints, Moody’s expects additional spending to be modest in 2017 and 2018.
Industry Research | Mar 21, 2017
Staff recruitment and retention is main concern among respondents of State of Senior Living 2017 survey
The survey asks respondents to share their expertise and insights on Baby Boomer expectations, healthcare reform, staff recruitment and retention, for-profit competitive growth, and the needs of middle-income residents.
Industry Research | Mar 14, 2017
6 ways cities can prepare for a driverless future
A new report estimates 7 million drivers will shift to autonomous vehicles in 3 U.S. cities.
Office Buildings | Mar 7, 2017
Large creative office projects generate staggering returns for property investors
A new Transwestern report examines the adaptive reuse trend across the U.S.
Industry Research | Mar 7, 2017
These are the 10 most expensive cities in the world to build in
Paris, Frankfurt, and Macau are all on the list, but none of them are more expensive than the city in the number one spot.
Office Buildings | Mar 2, 2017
White paper from Perkins Eastman and Three H examines how design can inform employee productivity and wellbeing
This paper is the first in a planned three-part series of studies on the evolution of diverse office environments and how the contemporary activity-based workplace (ABW) can be uniquely tailored to support a range of employee personalities, tasks and work modes.
Industry Research | Feb 15, 2017
Putting workers first should be every employer’s priority
The latest Sodexo report on workplace trends explores 10 factors that are impacting the global work environment.
